Friday, April 20, 2012

A Spring Stall?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303425504577353550599537484.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

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"Reflective thinking enables you to distance yourself from the intense emotions of particularly good or bad experiences and see them with fresh eyes." (John C. Maxwell)

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Is there an "oops" out there in the economic landscape? The four week moving average of initial jobless claims (closely watched because it tends to smooth out the weekly "blips") came back up yesterday.

There's a general consensus that this is the weakest economic recovery since WW II but there is also general agreement that the GDP growth rate will be roughly 2% for the first quarter. Consumer confidence and auto sales are up significantly while existing home sales and manufacturing production are down for March.

The weak reports in manufacturing, housing and jobs have caused some to conclude that the economy could repeat the pattern of the last two years when growth picked up early in the year only to slow sharply in the spring.

We'll see.

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