U.S. Industrial Production: 2012

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/19/business/economy/car-sales-continue-to-fall-in-many-developed-countries.html?ref=business&_r=0

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"Everyone takes the limits of his own vision for the limits of the world." (Arthur Schopenhauer)
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The NYTimes.com reported today that U.S. industrial production for 2012 was up 2.2%, pushing it past the 2006 average for the first time since the recession started in 2007. Car sales have come back up but not to pre-recession levels.

Looking at the trend lines for car sales and industrial production across countries and especially at the U.S. versus the Eurozone gives the feeling that worldwide markets aren't back yet.

Local BMW dealers here in Dallas were quoted this week as being excited to get added inventory to sell from Europe where BMW just wasn't moving units.

Local housing in Dallas is looking up according to the Dallas Morning News survey of price changes in pre-owned single-family homes for 2012. Percentage changes were up in all but three of the 45 Dallas-area residential districts tracked. Prices increased at an average of 6% and are expected to increase in 2013. Good news.

Mauro Guillen, a professor at the Wharton School, referred this week to the Eurozone as having fallen into a "double-dip recession." Certainly, the trend lines I referred to above reinforce that perspective.

If we think of the world as three major economic zones, plus emerging markets, then we have China "growing" at a GDP growth rate that's less than it was (7% to 8% maybe), the Eurozone in a double-dip recession, and the U.S. looking at better numbers in key economic sectors but not all the way back yet. I think those three major world economic powers need to be "all" coming back at the same time because there are enough interconnections that, if one of the three has slipped, it makes it harder for the other two - so BMW is sending cars to the U.S. But what is the U.S. sending to the Eurozone, and in what volume?

These are just some "thoughts."