http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/04/06/economists-react-hitting-pothole-in-road-back-to-strong-growth/
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"Disappointment is the difference between expectations and reality." (John C. Maxwell)
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I tend to think along the same lines as Ken Goldstein at The Conference Board whose perspective on the latest jobs data is that employers spent a great deal of time reducing costs over the past few years and apparently do not see enough solid evidence to sharply reverse course on hiring.
The New York Times uses the term "permabears" to describe those economists who are not convinced of the strength of this recovery (is this a recovery?). Before I saw the latest jobs numbers (a drop to 120,000 jobs added from several months at 200,000 plus) this week, I mentioned to one of my classes that adding 200,000 plus jobs per month to the U.S. economy is nice, but, as Laura Tyson recently pointed out, studies have indicated that adding jobs to the economy at that rate would take until 2024 to return employment levels to where they were prior to the worldwide financial crisis.
There is a New York-based forecasting firm with an excellent track record (Economic Cycle Research Institute) that sees a new recession coming (are we out of the old one?). My favorite dark profit and predictor of worldwide financial crises, Nouriel Roubini ("Dr. Doom"), calls this recovery (?) anemic, subpar, below trend, and below potential.
This would be as opposed to the Federal Reserve which currently estimates that the U.S. economy will grow at 2.2 to 2.7% this year.
Mark Zandi (chief economist at Moody's Analytics) is relatively optimistic. He's worth listening to because the quality of what he produces in terms of what will "move" the economy has been very high.
Goldman Sachs, in a research note entitled "Sticking With Sluggish," argues that an "exceptionally mild" winter stole business and hiring from March and April. I have trouble basing things on the "weather."
Then, of course, there's the possibility of $5.00 per gallon gasoline!
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The robots are coming too. Amazon is going use robots to move inventory around in their warehouses. Amazon today, everyone else tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteHahaha. You reluctantly changed your attitude towards Roubini. Goldman Sachs... ya... I do not like them. Their corporate culture is messed up. The psychology research on such conditions is irrefutable. Therefore, GS is not to be trusted. They look at the bottom line for themselves and nothing else too often (enough to make the papers). Someone should rock the finance industry with a new corporate culture strategy and better values.
This quick list of names gives me an idea. You should create list of people and organizations you trust and what information they supply. I would certainly review it a few times.
Oh yeah! Check out Mike Mayo. Please read his book Exile on Wall Street. This is a reasonable guy with great insights and an inside look into the finance industry. People's attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors are always a part of the economic equation.
The media is full of BS. Every economist knows about the seasonality from the holiday season into Spring, but all the papers ran those stories about employment indicating a recovery. What is their game? What is to gain? Are they not telling people newspapers are bad resources for economic information? Perhaps it stimulates an environment of that it is okay for any respectable information source to be wildly wrong about economic projections.
Some of the stuff in the media makes me laugh, but this is just annoying. They will likely reach new lows during election season.
What do you expect about the economy? Years of decisions were based on lies. Now we must pay. Math does not lie. People do. I can understand the lies. I understand why people want to lie to better themselves. However, someone always pays. Ultimately, it is all about values, beliefs, caring about all people. We are all connected. Therefore, what will we do to affect the lives of others? If the lies continues, it will get ugly.
OMG. wrote that too fast. I am still working on my speed typing. It is still readable. Gas is not going to be $5 hahaha. I swear you are just trying to push some people's buttons. CH is a whiz at gas stuff, having worked at Oxy and all. Iran is a great case study of bad leadership. The world should replace Iran's production. The US should just move all the people who do not want to be in such countries to somewhere else. Then let the Middle East indulge in civil wars. We sell them supplies. Eventually, they will learn reasonable values through the death of many. You know? Like tolerance of other religions. Women's rights. Maybe they are forever doomed to poverty and bad values... what do I know.
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