Monday, April 16, 2012

Housing & GDP Growth

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304432704577347530806018866.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

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"Creativity comes from trust. Trust your instincts. And never hope more than you work." (Rita Mae Brown)

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People are writing positive things about the U.S. economy because there appears to be some positive news in the spring home buying season. Reduced prices, record low mortgage rates, an improving job market and auto sales are looking like consumer spending may be coming back.

The wave of foreclosures has, as anticipated, led to people defining the housing market bottom as "now" and sales are going up (along with prices) in some key markets: Boston, Dallas and Seattle. CoreLogic, a real estate data firm, has stated that prices for homes not at risk of foreclosure (2/3 of the homes up for sale) rose .7% in February.

Earnings reports from Friday indicate that a bank like JPMorgan Chase issued 6% more mortgages from January thru March than it did a year ago and got 33% more applications. Nationwide home prices are down 34% since 2006. Maybe this is the bottom that potential buyers have been looking for.

According to the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey of consumer confidence, the data indicate an upward movement in that index for a 7th straight month to its highest level in 13 months.

And, according to the Case-Chiller Home Price Index, price declines started to slow toward the end of 2011.

Today's Commerce Department report indicated that Americans spent more on home improvement, gasoline, cars and electronics in March despite mixed economic signals. Consumer spending is now up for 10 consecutive months.

All this bodes well for GDP growth.

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