WSJ Consensus Forecast

http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB125494927938671631-lMyQjAxMDI5NTA0OTkwNDk5Wj.html

The new WSJ consensus forecast (attached) shows an estimated GDP growth for the just ended third quarter of 3.1%. That's a full percent better than this group of 48 economists projected at year start. On average, the economists don't expect unemployment to fall below 6% until 2013. On average, the economists expect unemployment to peak at 10.2% this coming February.

At the end of the cover article for the survey data, there is an excellent graph depicting the "Long Road Back". The graph displays how long it would take to regain the job level at the start of this recession (December 2007) : assuming the average monthly pace of the most recent expansion, it would take 86 months, or not until December 2016. From a "jobs" perspective this is an awfully heavy load for a recovering economy to shoulder - the "numbers" look more like a double-dip recession. Where is the "consumer"? In many cases, the consumer is unemployed or underemployed. In addition, Roubini points out that there is a vast negative potential currently in the economy from commercial real estate. That observation, while accurate, should be tempered by the fact that Roubini can find the negative in anything.

"Consensus" amongst economists is a scary thing, but I'm going to go with the positive GDP projections because part of any recovery is confidence.