The Spring Swoon

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/06/business/economy/us-adds-only-88000-jobs-jobless-rate-falls-to-7-6.html?hp

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"Progress is often just a good idea away." (John C. Maxwell)

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So "employers" increased their payrolls by 88,000 last month, compared with 268,000 in February based on Labor Department data released today. This is the slowest pace since last June and half of what economists expected. But, then again, we're talking about "economists."

The "Spring Swoon:" this is what economists have started calling a drop in employment at this time of year since it is the third consecutive year that it has happened.

According to Steve Blitz (director and chief economist at ITG Investment Research), this data underscores what their information is indicating: "...a growing but not accelerating economy."

The unemployment rate (which comes from a different survey) dropped down to 7.6% from 7.7% but, as Catherine Rampell says, "...primarily because more people dropped out of the labor force, not because more people got jobs."

The "Labor Force Participation Rate" has not been this low - 63.3% - since 1979. That's 1979! Again, according to Catherine Rampell, 1979 was "...a time when women were less likely to be working." Dropping out has everything to do with discouragement about job prospects in a mediocre economy and that's a major force here.

"Sequestration," a term that only government could come up with, has NOT caused the current weak numbers. Government employment actually "rose" in March. (That's a "net" number since the Post Office did lay off 12,000 people) Sequestration is not expected to play into the overall numbers until September. Weak retail numbers, based on the assumption that consumers are spending less in reaction to the expiration of the payroll tax cut, factored in as expected.

When you look at the mix of jobs that have been lost versus jobs that have been added over the past few years, the majority of jobs lost during the downturn were in the middle range of wages and the majority of those added during the "recovery" (is that what we're in?) have been low paying (per the National Employment Law Project). Not even the same people.

So, I'll believe we're in a "recovery" when the Fed decides to raise interest rates because unemployment is down to 5%. Until then, no.