Some Good News

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/31/your-money/a-muted-recovery-may-mean-a-longer-bull-market.html?ref=business

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"You are today where your thoughts have brought you. You will be tomorrow where your thoughts take you." (James Allen)

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So, on Thursday, at the end of a trading week shortened by the Good Friday holiday, the S&P 500 Stock Index closed at a record high. According to Paul Lim, the current "Bull Market" turned 4 years old this month.

This usually means a "market correction" except that the average bull market "peak" since WW II saw GDP growth at an average annual rate of 4.2%. That does not correlate with the most recent GDP growth rate of .4%.

Market peaks also tend to show other characteristics like unemployment falling below 5%. Well, that doesn't work either since the current rate is at 7.7%. The Fed has a goal of keeping interest rates practically non-existent until the unemployment rate hits 6.5%. Normally, it's the Fed that kills bull markets by raising interest rates.

U.S. consumers increased spending in February. More spending by consumers should boost economic growth in the January thru March quarter. After seeing Friday's report on consumer spending, Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, raised his growth forecast for the first quarter by a full percentage point. Ashworth now expects U.S. growth in the first quarter to increase at an annual rate of 3%.

Happy Easter!