The Economy

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/29/business/economy/steep-drop-in-orders-for-durable-goods.html?_r=1&ref=business

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"You must be the change you want to see in the world." (Mike Bassett quoting Mahatma Gandhi)

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What a boring subject but, for all you loyalists reading this, there is some good news in the midst of the bad.

As Mark Zandi put it recently, the rebounding U.S. economy should be able to shrug off the weight of higher gasoline prices and turmoil in Europe's financial sector. But, "House prices are still declining nationwide...and we are expecting house prices to fall another 3% or so in 2012."

Zandi's perspective is based on the presumption that the share of home sales that are depressed will rise over the next two or three quarters. The good news in real estate is that commercial properties have turned the corner.

Zandi sees gasoline prices moderating after the summer driving season.

Zandi's team at Moody's sees Europe as already in a mild recession and without any solid growth for another 4 or 5 years.

Moody's Analytics predicts that Texas will dominate the top U.S. employment markets in 2012 and 2013.

Since hitting its all-time low of 25.3 in February of 2009, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index has now risen to 70.8 points (from 61.5 in January). Good, but well below the 90 that it levels at when the economy is humming.

Mixed signals are what an economy looks like when it "may" be on the mend. But, there are those that feel we have a "perfect storm" coming at the end of this year with tax policy and national debt issues coming together.

Anybody listening to the Fed's announcement that it's keeping it's looser monetary policy ongoing to or thru 2014, probably got a hint of where the Fed thinks the economy is going in the short term.

We'll see.