http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203501304577084594165136990.html?KEYWORDS=Exxon+Declares+Gas+King
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"What we are is God's gift to us. What we become is our gift to God." (Eleanore Powell)
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Exxon puts together an energy forecast each year that is very closely watched. There are several reasons for this but the most important one is that they are usually right. When you're spending $25 billion per year for oil/gas exploration and related needs, you have to have a good batting average.
When all the security analysts were predicting in 2009 that Exxon needed to buy another oil company in order to shore up their oil reserve "replacement rate" (a critical indicator that security analysts watch closely), they bought a gas company (XTO: a natural-gas business costing them $25 billion) in 2010, much to the surprise of the "experts."
This year's forecast came out last week and it indicates that global energy demand will grow about 30% by 2040 as the world population climbs from 7 billion to 9 billion people.
The forecast goes on to indicate that coal use will continue to grow thru 2025 primarily in developing nations such as China, India and the African continent (because economic growth is the fastest there). But, for the first time in history, coal use will start to drop after that date because of growing demand for fuels that produce fewer greenhouse gases and a decline in China's population expected after 2030.
One of the headline projections from Exxon's forecast is that (again, by 2040) oil imports from OPEC nations will be reduced to nearly 1 million barrels per day (or, as the report has been characterized: OPEC oil imports to the U.S. will "...nearly vanish.").
The report goes on to predict that hybrid vehicles will move from the margins of the market to the mainstream by 2040: basically from 1% today to 40% in 2040.
Last, the forecast predicts that, in spite of a "doubling" of the worldwide fleet of passenger cars to 1.6 billion in 2040, fuel demand will flatten because average mileage will grow from 27 mpg today to 48 mpg by the end of the period.
There's some good news here and that's refreshing.
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That looks very hopeful, I'm hoping that the report is correct. I would be even more thrilled if the change occurred by 2025, but progress takes much time. Usually.
ReplyDeleteWhat surprises me is that the population is expected to increase by 2 billion, even though most countries (at least the large and developed ones) are experiencing low human replacement rates.
Great points Mariya. There is actually a range of estimates on where the world's population will be (some as high as 12 to 15 billion)but Exxon is taking the more responsible estimate. And you're right about the correlation between developed countries and low birth rates. The problem is that there are more "people" in "developing" countries than developed countries.
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