http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40764172/ns/us_news-life/?GT1=43001#
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"Whatever the mind can conceive and believe, the mind can achieve." (Dr. Napoleon Hill)
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The 2010 official population of the United States was released today by the Census Bureau. The new number (see title above), based on surveys taken on April 1, 2010 (would that be "April Fools Day?"), is a 9.7% increase over the last census: 281.4 million residents in 2000.
The growth in population over the last 10 years is the lowest since the 1940 census (which covered the Great Depression's prior 10 years when growth was only 7.3%).
These are the figures that will be used to reapportion the 435 House seats among the 50 states.
The U.S. is still growing quickly relative to other developed nations. The population of France and England grew 5% over the past decade, while Japan's number has hardly changed and Germany's population is declining. China grew at 6% and Canada at 10%.
The declining growth rate since 2000 in the U.S. is due partly to the meltdown in 2008 which brought births and illegal immigration to a near standstill compared with previous years. The state that gained the most numerically in 2010 was Texas (up 4,293,741 to 25,145,561). Politically, Texas will gain four House seats due to a growing Hispanic population and a diversified economy that held up relatively well during the recession.
Given all of this, Joel Kotkin ("The Changing Demographics of America," The Smithsonian, 8/10) sees an America that grows to somewhere between 404 (United Nations estimate) and 422/458 million (U.S. Census estimate) by 2050. Kotkin, author of "The Next 100 Million - America in 2050," (Penguin Press, 2010) sees America's fertility rate (2.1 children per family in 2006 - the highest in 45 years) as the key to its growth by 2050. This is a rate helped mostly by recent immigrants who tend to have higher birth rates than residents whose families have been here for several generations. Further, the U.S. minority population, currently 30%, is expected to exceed 50% before 2050. By 2039, due largely to immigrants and their offspring, the majority of working-age Americans will be "minorities."
Again, according to Kotkin, between 2000 and 2050, the U.S. 15-to-64 age group is expected to grow 42%. This same group is expected to decline 10% in China, 25% in Europe, 30% in South Korea and more than 40% in Japan.
So, today's census figures tell us where we are. Kotkin's insightful worldwide demographic perspectives tell us where we're headed: "Only successful immigration can provide the markets, the manpower and, perhaps most important, the youthful energy to keep western societies vital and growing." (Joel Kotkin, 2010)
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A few months ago I was reading an article about declining birthrates around the world, and how the US seems to continue to evade this trend. It's hard to summarize, but it talked about how in the US, we have developed a society that encourages fathers to be involved in raising children, unlike Italy and some other European countries. Couple that with a strong religious system that puts a strong emphasis on families and having more children and you have a recipe for strong population growth in a very developed nation.
ReplyDeleteIf we can continue to buck the European trend of declining birth rates, this bodes well for the US future.
Marcelo: I agree. It occurs to some that the U.S. has a better demographic situation because of the immigration factor. This also adds to the innovative aspects of the U.S. culture.
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