High School Graduation Rates

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/21/opinion/21herbert.html?th&emc=th

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"Leadership is seeing opportunity in tough times." (Jack Welsh)

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Just as we post something on the fact that we're losing teachers, Bob Herbert comes along and tells us that the on-time high school graduation rate for black males in 2008 was 47%. That same rate in New York City was 28%.

The U6 (all in) unemployment rate has stayed at roughly 17% so there are no jobs out there and less jobs for those who haven't graduated from high school. But wait, we didn't have enough teachers (and even less good teachers) before and now we have less teachers.

Herbert on the issue: "Education in the broadest sense is the key to stopping this socioeconomic slide that is taking such a horrific toll in the black community. People have to understand what is happening to them before they can really do much about it. Young blacks who have taken a wrong road ... have to be shown a feasible legitimate alternative."

That alternative is jobs. New government data this week showed that U.S. manufacturing activity grew in July at the fastest pace in nearly a year. Auto plants, including GM's award winning Arlington, Texas SUV plant, stayed open when they normally close for summer renovations. Unfortunately, the figures on housing were not encouraging. Builders continue to struggle with weak demand for new homes caused by high unemployment and a glut of foreclosed homes on the market

Mark Zandi, chief economist and co-founder of Moody's Economy.com, is a very much "listened to" voice in Washington and in top business circles. His opinion on what's going on right now is that he's raised his odds of a double-dip recession from one-in-five to one-in-four. However; his forecasts for 2011 and 2012 are more upbeat. He predicts real GDP will rise 4% in 2011 and 5% in 2012 (K@W 7/27/10). His most fundamental reason for optimism is strong corporate earnings with companies sitting on a great deal of cash. Zandi sees small businesses continuing to struggle but large and mid-sized firms driving new expansion in the next six to twelve months.

We hope he's right.